How would it play out here

I was watching the live video feed from Al Jezeera English on the web a while ago, watching the events in Libya unfold as the rebels took Tripoli.  I thought about Egypt, I thought about the other places where events like this have occurred, even going back to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

So a couple of thoughts crossed my mind.  Like how bad would if have to get, before something like that happened here?  And if it did, would enough of our military decide to side with the people to actually put some muscle behind a popular uprising?

It is important to note that in each of the Arab countries with a successful uprising, the government unintentionally turned what were essentially demonstrations of discontent into a revolution by the virulence of their response.  If Gaddafi had, for example, recognized that the demonstrators had legitimate grievances, even if very little changed, he probably would still be in power.

The appearance of sympathy and some token concessions would likely have blunted the anger of the populace.  Instead he proved to them that they were right by his violent response.  It is possible to make the population cower in submission, but it has become harder to do in the age of the internet and social networking.

Demonstrations of any size against the status quo in this country are usually downplayed, while tiny demonstrations in favor or right wing causes are treated as major events.  You need look no further than Minnesota where massive demonstrations in support of organized labor and a dozen tea party members with signs across the street were given equal weight by the mainstream media.   

So the tactic in this country would be very different, it would be to marginalize the demonstrators, try and convince each group that they represented a tiny segment of the population.  I attended a large demonstration in San Francisco before the invasion of Iraq, and one person had a since that was prophetic.  It read "Remember what you see here, because they will lie about it on the news".  And it was very true. Despite massive demonstrations all across the country, the anti-war sentiment was marginalized in the media.

So what would it take?  How many people out of work, how many families tossed onto the streets before there would be enough opposition that the oligarchy feels threatened? 

You only need look to the early union movements to see what has happened in the past.  As recently as 1920, there was the Anaconda Road Massacre where company guards fired on unarmed miners, shooting 17 in the back.  Or look at the Colorado Labor wars of 1902-1903, where the military was used to violently suppress striking miners.  Look to Herbert Hoover's reaction to the Bonus March of World War I Veterans, which eventually led to his downfall and the election of FDR.

In many homes around the country, there is an air of quiet desperation.  How long does this continue, when does the pot boil over?  And on who's side would the military end up?